On Wednesday, the 14th, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INDEC) will release inflation data for January. According to consultants, inflation rates are estimated to be between 20% and 23%. Despite this, it is believed that the level remained below December’s (25.5%) with a slight slowdown in the third week of the month.
The first indication of what happened in Buenos Aires during January comes from a report by the government of the city, which is usually closely aligned with national inflation levels. The increase in January was recorded as 21.7%, which is the highest since statistical records began in 2012. The interannual variation of the index was recorded as 238.5%.
Economist Rocio Bisang from EcoGo consulting firm has forecasted an estimate for inflation at 21.2% for January. “In general,” she said, “it was a month marked by resistance that left December gains behind.” She cited specific areas such as health where increases in pre-paid bills stood out or transport, where gasoline and train and bus increases weighed heavily on overall price increases.
Lorenzo Sigout Gravin, director of Equilibra consulting firm has reported preliminary data for January to be lower than those for December with an estimate of 22.5%. He noted when asked about inflation forecasts that falling purchasing power due to wages lagging behind prices acted as a brake on complaints leading to a slowdown in inflation during January. This trend was reflected in Clarion’s report which noted demand fell across various sectors such as auto centers, shopping malls, supermarkets, gas stations and retail stores.
A study by Orlando consulting firm Ferreras & Asociados based on over fifteen thousand GBA prices of goods and services predicts that January inflation would end up close to 18% on a monthly basis with an annual increase of 244.5%. However, core inflation advanced at a monthly rate of 19.5 percent representing growth of around 268.8 percent on an annual basis.