The recent economic data in the United States, which showed an increase in unemployment benefits applications, a rise in the number of people on the unemployment rolls and a decline in private payrolls growth, has raised concerns about a possible slowdown in the economy. Despite this, analysts suggested that the Federal Reserve may consider cutting interest rates to boost demand for oil. This could help offset the slowdown in growth and support the market by increasing demand.
Brent crude futures were down 0.34% at $87.04 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 0.38% at $83.56 on light trading during the US Fourth of July holiday. The ADP jobs report found that private payrolls rose by 150,000 jobs in June, less than expected, while the ISM Non-Manufacturing index fell to a four-year low in June, indicating a decline in activity in the services sector.
While analysts at ANZ Research noted that recent data is consistent with the Fed’s inclination to ease monetary policy, potentially leading to interest rate cuts in the future, it is uncertain how effective such measures would be to stimulate economic growth and support oil prices. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions continue to pose risks to oil prices.
Overall, while there are some signs of weakness in the global economy and oil market, there are also some positive factors such as lower interest rates and increased demand from emerging markets like China and India that could help support prices moving forward.