The economy is predicted to slow down at a faster pace, but the speaker does not see any signs of recovery. Any weakening that may occur will be very gradual and could impact inflation in the long run. The speaker is considering making just one rate cut this year and is closely monitoring the situation to determine how it progresses. If the economy continues on track as expected, the speaker believes it would be appropriate to start cutting rates in the fourth quarter.

According to the speaker, inflation is expected to reach its target by 2026. However, there are secondary measures within the inflation numbers that raise concerns about a potential slowdown. Despite these concerns, the speaker is not eager to upset the current economic dynamic as long as inflation remains on track. Employment contacts did not express any worries to the speaker, who takes a hawkish stance.

The speaker has pointed out certain aspects of inflation that are concerning, particularly those related to goods in the CPI basket that are growing at rates above 3% and even 5%. This trend resembles a period of high inflation and should be closely monitored to prevent upward pressure on prices before any policy decisions are made regarding interest rates.

By Samantha Johnson

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