The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators is used to give insight into the direction of the economy. While it fell in October, indicating a recession may be on the horizon, the index has been decreasing for 19 months without a recession. This has led many economists to adjust their forecasts.
One reason we are not currently in a recession is due to the strong consumer spending, which has exceeded expectations. Justina Zabinska-La Monica of The Conference Board predicts that a recession will occur early next year, but if it does happen, it is expected to be short and relatively mild. This is because there has not been a significant drop in manufacturing or the housing market.
American economist Matthew Martin of Oxford Economics no longer predicts a recession for this month, but he still expects unemployment to rise and working conditions to soften. He believes that a soft landing is more likely and is prepared to update his forecasts if necessary based on further economic data.
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