India is set to become the second largest producer of solar modules by 2025, according to a Wood Mackenzie report. This will outpace Southeast Asia, with most production expected to meet US demand for solar modules. However, India faces challenges due to high production costs caused by the basic a 25% duty on imported solar cells.
The report highlights that China is projected to hold over 80% of the global capacity for the solar module supply chain from 2024. The country has a leading role in N-type cell technology, accounting for 95% of announced global expansions in this area. Vertically integrated manufacturers can still find growth opportunities despite the sector’s shrinking profit margins.
The US is developing its own photovoltaic production capacity under the Inflation Reduction Act, but remains dependent on imports due to the absence of domestic production of wafers, cells or glass. This dependence is expected to continue especially when President Biden’s temporary waiver of solar import tariffs expires in mid-2024.
Southeast Asia’s solar capacity is largely driven by Chinese investment, and Europe’s demand for protective tariffs on Chinese modules due to uncompetitive pricing highlight the changing dynamics of the global solar module supply chain.