Dan Szimborski’s ZiPS projections have once again shown their support for the Atlanta Braves, with the latest projection system published on FanGraphs. These projections, generated through a million simulations, indicate that the Braves are strong contenders for the upcoming season.
Szymborski’s methodology involves using projections from the first to the 99th percentile for each player to create a generalized depth chart. He then makes adjustments based on his personal feelings and filters them through logic and reasoning. The result is a million versions of each team, calculated in Monte Carlo fashion.
While other projection systems such as PECOTA and FanGraphs playoff odds also predict the Braves as strong favorites for the 2024 World Series, ZiPS offers slightly more conservative odds. The Braves are projected to win 95 games, have a 92.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 17.4% chance of winning the World Series. They are also projected to be 10 games better than their division rivals, the Phillies. On the other hand, the Los Angeles Dodgers are projected for 93 wins and have a 13.9% chance of winning the World Series.
Szymborski acknowledged that it’s not surprising that ZiPS favors the Braves given their success last season and their current roster. He also stated that there are no formidable contenders for the Braves in their division, which reflects their strength as a team.
With multiple projection systems showing support for the Braves as a serious contender for the 2024 season, it’s clear that they have become an attractive bet among baseball enthusiasts and analysts alike. However, Szimborski’s explanation of ZiPS methodology adds depth and nuance to this analysis, making it a valuable resource for those interested in baseball projections.